Tuesday, November 27, 2007

Tuesday almost 5pm

After a beautiful sunny day, with those big white fluffy clouds now I get this rather complicated weather email from KOMO TV in Seattle.  I have plans for Wednesday evening, dinner with some gals I used to work with....and Thursday, Barbara and I are going to an early dinner and then to the Festival of Trees. Our last outing for awhile as she leaves Saturday with her oldest daughter and grand daughter for San Diego, to catch a cruise ship for the Mexican Rivera Cruise.    Friday it's just a trip to the dentist at 2pm, so that should be ok.  But I hate driving at night when it's stormy. Yuk ! 

Dear Linda,
Updated Tuesday 4:20 p.m.

It doesn't get more challenging than this around here.

For all the different weather events we get -- rain, wind, convergence zones, rain shadows -- snow is the most challenging... and fringe snow is the most challenging of all.

While it's not nice to drive in, having it be 25 degrees with a big blob of moisture moving in actually makes our job easier. But more often, it's about 33-35, and moisture is only expected in some places, and don't forget minute variations in altitude, topography, and proximity to large bodies of water with swirling winds in this region that might make down the block two degrees warmer and raining while it's snowing at your home.

Which is all a fancy way of saying the upcoming forecast will not be a cakewalk.

Tonight is still fairly calm. We'll see just a few isolated showers toward the foothills that will taper off overnight. The rest of us will be partly cloudy and chilly. Lows will drop into the upper 20s in the outlying areas to the low-mid 30s in the city.

Then comes Wednesday, which will begin calm but not end that way. We'll start with mostly cloudy skies, with light rain developing around midday or early afternoon as a weak cold front drops in from the northwest.

It's Wednesday night and early Thursday morning where things get interesting again. The front's parent low pressure system is forecast to move southeast across the northern interior. There is some semi-cool air in B.C. that could get drawn into the low, so areas on the north side of the low could get just enough cool air late Wednesday and early Thursday to get a little bit of snow -- especially above 500 feet. No significant accumulations expected though -- maybe 1-1.5" at most.

The exception is the Hood Canal area (same places over there that got snow Tuesday), which could see maybe 1-2" of snow from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning.

Outside of the general snow/mix zaniness, we're looking at scattered rain/snow showers in the morning and then decreasing showers for the afternoon. Highs will climb into the low 40s, so any snow that does fall will melt pretty quickly once the snow ends.

(Wow, 11 paragraphs, and I'm not even to the weekend. Man, I love November!)

Forecasting models don't offer much help in the consensus department for the weekend. And wouldn't you know, we still have cool air and moisture in the neighborhood.

It does look like we'll have some cooler, modified arctic air will move in from B.C., adding more of a winter chill to the air.

Friday looks calm, with just a few isolated rain showers amid plenty of sunbreaks, with highs in the low 40s.

Saturday, a weak system is now forecast to drift through, and with some of that chilly air in place, it could be for light snow or flurries. No significant accumulations expected, but something to be mindful of. Highs will only reach the upper 30s.

Our next challenge will be Sunday. A much warmer, wetter system is forecast to head our way, but if we get enough of that cool air entrenched ahead of time, precipitation could begin as a heavy wet, sloppy snow before changing over to rain as the warm air scours us out.

That could bring widespread accumulations before that occurs, so be mindful of that on Sunday. However, it should all be melted by Monday, so no commuting problems expected. In fact, long range models for next week hint at a warmer, wetter pattern, ending all snow concerns and probably instead requiring an eye on the rivers. Highs will climb into the upper 40s or perhaps into the 50s.

But at least it's not fringe snow :) more...
KOMO 4 Weather Producer Scott Sistek

There was a lovely sunset...and I stood on my porch and watched it , then gathered wood and got a fire going in the wood stove.  As it was starting to get chilly in the house.  I'm anxious to see who wins "Dancing With The Stars."   The final show is tonight.   Have a good evening.........Linda


jonibooks1991 said...

Yeah November in the Northwest.  Joni

mariealicejoan said...

I wonder who it is that won?  We don't get the show until Friday nights here.  We have been having very cold, dismal and showery weather this week.  I hate it.

gaboatman said...

That's definately a complicated forecast.  The wood burning fire sounds nice and cozy on nights like that.

wwfbison said...

I was so happy Helio won!!  They were a fun group this year.  I hope you got the chance to go out with your gal pals.  Ah, a cruise on the Mexican Rivera....can it get better!  She's lucky!!!

jvbutterfly said...

I love sunsets....June:)

jeadie05 said...

Your day sounds similar to how ours has been today ,and not too cold either ,We got the dancing series''Dancing with Stars '' last year ,so will see if they repeat that for us again ...love Jan xx

hugsdoodlewacky said...

(((((((((((((((LINDA))))))))))))))))))Have a great day.

ally123130585918 said...

Linda I hope you got to go out for dinner with some of your girlfriends ~ I hope Barbara enjoys her Mexican Rivera Cruise ~ and hope you enjoy your TRIP to the Dentist Friday that should be exciting :o) ~ Ally x

fasttrack58 said...

Have a good time!!
Linda :)

kaydeejay5449 said...

How did you feel about the "Dancing" results?  Is it always a guy?  I wonder what's up with that?  I think he was great, by the way, but I liked Melonie, too.
Hugs, Kathy

jlocorriere05 said...

Stay warm, sounds like you have a mixed bag of weather on the way! I hope Barbara enjoys the cruise and your trip to the dentist goes OK. Jeannette xx  http://journals.aol.co.uk/jlocorriere05/Welcometomytravels/